Any outlook covering a period of several decades is surrounded by plenty of uncertainties that could significantly alter its projected trends. That is the key reason why those who compile these outlooks often avoid the word “forecast”, and talk instead about “scenarios” (the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook) and “cases”.
BP’s latest Energy Outlook “considers a base case, outlining the ‘most likely’ path for global energy markets over the next 20 years based on assumptions and judgments about future changes in policy, technology and the economy”. Sixteen of its around 100 pages focus on “key uncertainties” to 2035, which include the possibility of a more rapid penetration of electric cars, increased energy efficiency and a faster-than-anticipated transition to a lower-carbon economy.
